Gas at $ 1.65 per gallon. Cruise for $ 50 a day (or less). And the hotels are throwing in everything from breakfast to discount massages. 2009 will be the best year ever for travel – or miserable economy that we all have to hide under our beds with what little money we managed to get under the mattress before they all went to hell?
No idea, but after talking to industry analysts and other observers, I’m taking my signs of economists who believe that a potential recovery from mid-year. If that is the case, a rebound in consumer confidence – and, by extension, people are willing to travel – is bound to follow.
In the meantime, which is travel and offer two clashes along the way? If you are including the following to determine whether if it is like over the past experience or the last.
Go travel: more cuts to come
originally designed to counter the summer stratospheric oil prices, the timing of reductions in 2008 are expected to be sufficient – that is, until the economy was the south and the fall in demand exceeds the capacity cuts.
Therefore, the deepest cuts are on the way. Delta, Southwest and United have already announced additional cuts of five to 10 percent for 2009, and it is likely that other airlines follow suit. "There are another eight or nine percent of the system that can take quite easy," said Mike Boyd of the Boyd Group International, and will reduce its capacity before they will cut rates. “
More alliances mergers
with the integration of Delta and Northwest in progress – look like a cabin comfort and policies for the spring – it is logical to assume that mergers are more in perspective. Not necessarily, said Vaughn Cordle, CEO and chief analyst of AirlineForecasts LLC, which hopes to see more alliances (the United-Continental) that mergers: "Partnerships are tightening their associations – the combination of technologies, sharing space, all Members who have the same wing of the airport.” The goal: a broader scope of the workforce without struggles and regulatory challenges that come with authentic mergers.
Rates: sales not fare wars
among this year’s capacity cuts and falling oil prices, many analysts expect U.S. airlines to earn a small profit next year, but few expect them to share the wealth with all the passengers on board cuts. Watch instead of sales – especially during the slow winter season – and the tariffs to the edge, after that, Boyd said, as the reduced ability to catch the falling demand. "The public is the finger on the trigger of the gun spending," he says. "We simply do not know whether to throw or not."
A better flying experience
the continued reduction of the road map is regrettable on many levels, but less air traffic system is not without its benefits. Given the existing infrastructure – and the government limited to the improvement of it – the system has come just too big not to fail on a regular basis.
Fewer planes carrying fewer passengers, on the other hand, should lead to smoother operations throughout the system. In the security lines will be shorter, fewer bags were lost and decent punctuality must be the rule rather than the exception has been in recent years.
On the road again
"Americans are going to resume their normal travel patterns in 2009," said Doug Hecox, spokesman for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). "We simply do not know when." Moreover, he suggests the size and timing of change that probably has less to do with the price of gas to the underlying economic situation.
In short, we believe Hecox adapt. "The economy remains the more turbid, more people find ways to deal with it," he says. "People start to justify little luxuries – Not Godiva chocolates or trips to Paris, but maybe an overnight or long weekend."
Hitting the high seas
Or, I do not think a cruise. Advance reservations for 2009 in travel, cruise lines are offering discounts of up to 75 percent. Among the offerings: 3-night cruise to the Bahamas for $ 169 per person, 4-night Baja cruise for $ 249 and 7-night Caribbean cruises for $ 349. At the same time, the industry of sweetening the pot is in the higher-priced cruises aboard the expense claims, offers air fares and other temptations. And with eight new ships arriving this year, seeking more offers discount on the oldest vessels rather marquee itineraries.
Hot hotel deals
After years of construction, as there is no tomorrow, the hotel industry is also faced with a huge hangover opened in 2009 as hotels currently under construction as well as the demand is declining. The result? Lots of beds, not enough organs and good treatment for those who ask for them.
"Ask what the rate is, and then ask if there is any package or other way to get a lower rate. You can make a substantial difference," said Bjorn Hanson, an associate professor at the Tisch Center at New York University. "Ask for discounts should not be embarrassing – is not as if you are asking the reservationist a date."
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